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We analyse the causal effect of local money-supply growth on the US unemployment rate. The results of this study confirm that the credit rationing channel is very important. The results of other non-parametric IV models do not support a direct monetary effect on unemployment. We find that a 7 per cent increase in the supply of local money increases the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. We also show that the direct monetary effect of local money-supply growth on the US unemployment rate does not support the view that the US current account deficit is caused by erroneous monetary policy. A long period of monetary expansion, the Great Moderation era of persistent low inflation and interest rates, and the reduction in the term premium have also taken place during the same period of time.
These results have important policy implications. Policymakers need not worry that the US current account deficit with the rest of the world due to monetary contraction in the US. In contrast, policymakers should not be satisfied with the current level of US employment. This alleviation of the current unemployment problem should not be the only goal of the US economy. It is also important to restore the American standard of living and to utilise the capital stock of the US economy to its maximum potential. d2c66b5586
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